Big Sticks and Small Carrots

So our great leader has decided it’s time to move to the next stage. He’s suggested that social exclusion should be tackled through pre-emptive government intervention at an early stage. Very early. Like pre-birth early.

Any guesses what his Fordship read by the pool this summer?

A squat grey building of only thirty-four storeys. Over the main entrance the words, CENTRAL LONDON HATCHERY AND CONDITIONING CENTRE, and, in a shield, the World State’s motto, COMMUNITY, IDENTITY, STABILITY.
- Brave New World, Chapter 1

Looks like he’s found a new instruction manual.

By the way, after waxing lyrical on the new solutions he wants to implement for eleven and a half minutes (full interview available from the Beeb’s article), he says:

I know we are… intervening in an area that is very, very difficult. There are many really hard question about that. That’s why we’re at the stage, if you like, of having a debate about it but my own judgement is…

And then off he goes again. In other words, this is the debate we’ll be having and this is the conclusion it will reach. Classic Blair in every way.

Tags: News, Politics, Tony Blair

Juan Cole has some thoughts on Bush’s latest attempt to sell the continuing occupation of Iraq to the American people. Good stuff.

In the linked report, we see that Bush said:

The stakes are high. it’s very important for the American people to understand that the security of the United States of America, the capacity of our children to grow up in a peaceful world, in large part depends on our willingness to help this young Iraq democracy succeed.

Really? The security of what is by far the most militarily secure country in the world depends in large part on what happens in Iraq?

I don’t wish to sound insensitive but anyone who genuinely believes that ought to be refered to a mental health professional. They certainly shouldn’t be allowed to command what is by far the most powerful military force in the world.

Earlier, commenting on this latest round of speeches designed to bolster support for the “war” on terror in the run up to the congressional elections, the self declared “War President” said:

“They are not political speeches… These are important times, and I would seriously hope people wouldn’t politicize these issues that I’m going to talk about.”

Satire is already dead Mr Bush, there’s no need to kill it again. And again. And again…

Tags: News, Politics, Iraq, George Bush

Defence Secretary Des Browne is visiting Iraq to discuss security in the country. He’s going to be talking…

Hang on. Defence Secretary Des Browne? Are we actually already living inside a satirical future dystopia? Defence Secretary Des Browne? The bottom of the barrel has been scraped so hard, it appears to have a bloody great hole in it. Defence Secretary Des Browne. Dear oh dear.

Anyway, he’s going to be talking to Prime Minister Nouri Maliki about the handover of security to Iraqi forces in the south. These handovers are the cornerstone of the British government’s exit strategy in Iraq. And a start has already been made:

BBC world affairs correspondent Mike Wooldridge, who is in Baghdad, said Britain handed over formal security control to the Iraqis in one of the most stable of the southern provinces, Muthana, in July.

The same step is expected soon in Dhi Qar province.

“Around a thousand British troops have just withdrawn from their base in another province, Maysan, but they’ll continue long-range desert patrolling there particularly to watch for arms smuggling across the Iranian border,” he said.

See, it’s not so bad? There’s definitely progress…

Hang on. Wasn’t there something about a base in Maysan province in the news the other day? Ah, yes:

Looters Ransack Base After British Depart
Failure of Iraqi Soldiers to Prevent Assault Raises Worries About Security Transfers

BAGHDAD, Aug. 25 — Armed looters ransacked an abandoned British base in southern Iraq on Friday as Iraqi soldiers guarding the camp stood by and watched, heightening concerns that Iraqi troops are still ill-equipped to take control of security from U.S.-led coalition forces.

A crowd of as many as 5,000 people, including hundreds armed with AK-47 assault rifles, attacked Camp Abu Naji and hauled away window and door frames, corrugated roofing and metal pipes, despite the presence of a 450-member Iraqi army brigade meant to guard the base.

That doesn’t sound so good. What is the military saying?

Maj. Charlie Burbridge, a British military spokesman, said the Iraqi army maintained full control of the camp, even during the looting…

Try not to laugh, this is a serious business. The Major just has an unusual understanding of the meaning of “full control” (unless he means they aided the looters). He went on to say that “our confidence in the Iraqi security forces to maintain day-to-day order in Amarah remains unaffected”. A career in politics surely beckons.

Major Burbridge also tried to downplay the political significance of the complete destruction of the base by highlighting the economic factors which might have been at work. But even if this was just down to poor people stealing stuff, shouldn’t the Iraqi security forces have been able to stop it happening to a fortified military compound? Isn’t that the sort of thing the British army has been training them to do for the last three years? Or has there been some sort of misunderstanding in translation?

Well, it’s irrelevant in a sense because the Major isn’t being entirely honest about the causes of the looting:

Residents said, however, that antipathy toward the British was strong. After Sadr declared Amarah the first city in Iraq to drive out U.S.-led coalition forces, jubilant residents congratulated one another and planned to take to the streets in celebration.

“We have already stopped our relations with British forces,” said Abduljabbar Waheed, head of the provincial council of Maysan. “We always deal with them as occupiers. They have committed many crimes against our people during the last months, they don’t care for the people, and they have their own agenda goes against our people’s interests.”

That doesn’t sound like a successful transfer of power. Not unless the plan is to transfer power directly to militias like Sadr’s Mahdi Army anyway.

For added context, it’s worth pointing out that the night before the base was abandoned transferred to Iraqi control, 17 mortar rounds were fired at it. That report, presumably written on the Thursday of the pull out, looks rather silly with the benefit of hindsight:

The camp - including £292,000 worth of facilities such as catering, accommodation and watchtowers - will be occupied by the local forces.

Yeah, but no, it didn’t quite work out like that. Major Burbridge thinks it went OK but people have noticed that the whole thing was a sham. The camp isn’t being occupied by local forces because the camp isn’t there anymore.

Still, the handover in Muthana last month, it went well. Government heads have been talking that up every since it happe…

Hang on. Wasn’t there something in the news about that too? Ah yes:

Army base stripped bare days after handover

The first British camp to be handed to the Iraqis was looted almost bare within days of the Army’s departure.

The transfer last month was widely heralded as a signal that Iraq would soon be ready to run itself.

A British soldier said that as the last men drove away, they saw pick-up trucks being filled with equipment worth tens of thousands of pounds.

Most items that could be removed were taken, including air conditioning units, water filtration systems, chairs, bedding and kitchen utensils. When the commander of British forces in south-east Iraq, Brig James Everard, discussed the matter with the province’s governor he was told that the camp had “largely gone”.

Oh.

And still Blair seems to genuinely believe Iraq is on the right track. He probably also thinks Vietnamization is that trendy new restaurant in the West End.

Update

The BBC page linked at the top has been re-written. It did say what I said it said earlier, honest it did. Wish they wouldn’t do that.

On the plus side, they have gone to the trouble of mentioning the lootings in the updated version:

Last month, about 1,000 British troops were withdrawn from their base in Maysan. The base was looted immediately after it was handed over to Iraqi authorities.

Nearly. It was the one in Muthanna which was looted last month.

Just to be clear, the first base to be “transferred” was Camp Smitty which was near Samawah in Muthanna province. It was “tranferred” on July 30th and was looted “within days”. The second base to be “transferred” was Camp Abu Naji which was near Amarah in Maysan province. It was transferred last week, on August 24th, and was looted the next day.

These are two seperate incidents, about one hundred miles apart, one in Mathanna province last month and one in Maysan province last week.

Also in the updated version is the unsurprising news that Des wants the pantomime to continue. The question is, is there actually anything to be gained by prolonging the hardly credible pretense of success in this way? Wouldn’t it be better to stop putting our troops lives in danger in pursuit of a fictitious victory?

Have a think about it. The current approach has one advantage for one person. In essence, the British military in Iraq is now essentially an extension of the Downing Street spin machine. Bet that wasn’t in the job description when they signed up.

Tags: News, Politics, Iraq

In the autumn of 2007, new Prime Minister John Reid introduced an array of tough new measures in order to win the War on Terror. We’ve long since accepted the necessity of defeating evil so it’s easy to forget that at the time, many of the measures were considered hugely controversial.

Perhaps the most controversial was the National Muslim Roulette. The idea that one random British Muslim would be killed every day (and two on Bank Holidays) until all Islamists surrendered seemed like a step too for many people. Not everyone had understood that moderate Muslims’ unwillingness to defeat Islamic extremism made them equally responsible for terrorism and that they could be punished accordingly.

When the license to operate the NMR and to broadcast the daily executions was first awarded to Killalot (of Muslims), some even attempted to take to the streets in protest. Their applications to protest were of course refused under the new Defence of Democracy Act 2007 but the intention was there. Looking back, it is remarkable to think that it took so long for the self-evident justice of the NMR to be fully absorbed into the national conscience.

Opinions are divided as to what finally won round the dissenters. Some believe it was the enormously entertaining live TV programmes. Initially presented by Lord Winton of Orange, a man of unrivalled charisma, viewing figures were impressive from day one. The popularity of the “It’s Your Death” segment, with its famous Wheel of Justice, has been particularly enduring.

Historians now tend to agree, however, that the turning point came in early 2008 when Osama bin Laden released one of his famous audio broadcasts. His description of the National Muslim Roulette as a great injustice combined with his demand that it be stopped changed British attitudes to the NMR forever. Those who had previously doubted the morality of the Roulette could set their minds at rest. Clearly, if bin Laden said it was wrong, it was right and if bin Laden said he wanted it stopped, it should continue. The logic was inescapable.

From that point on, those who continued to protest against the NMR could be seen for what they were; appeasers, apologists and traitors. We could not possibly allow bin Laden to dictate our decisions. The very idea was as outrageous then is it is today. The public rallied and refused to submit to the demands of the Islamists; the unquestionably morally righteous National Muslim Roulette would continue.

Bin Laden’s intervention also triggered an added twist, one which boosted the already high viewing figures to a remarkable degree. In the summer of 2008 the government decreed that the remaining objectors, now that they had been exposed as appeasers, apologists and traitors, would be added to the Roulette’s database.

The first programme featuring one of these traitorous leftists remains the most watched British TV show of all time. (For those who don’t know, contestants on the show are selected from the database randomly by ERIC the computer.) He wasn’t chosen for Ultimate Justice on that occasion, much to everyone’s disappointment, but he was killed some days later by an angry mob. A number of tabloid photographers and cameramen happened to be on the scene to record the incident so justice was ultimately seen to be done.

After that, nobody really objected to the NMR.

(Dedicated to various comments on this thread. And yes, I did watchTime Trumpet last night.)

Tags: News, Politics, Terrorism, Media

This is a follow up to these two posts on the media coverage of Hezbollah attacks on Israel during the war. Essentially, the question was whether the Israeli reporting restrictions had the effect of giving greater credence to the claim that Hezbollah was deliberately trying to kill civilians than was actually supported by the facts.

Fran Unsworth has written about this over at the The Editors blog. Reading the comments there gives a good indication of the difficulties the BBC faces when covering such a controversial issue. The BBC is apparently the broadcast arm of the Hezbollah/Mossad propaganda unit (delete as appropriate). It can’t be easy to have to constantly deal with these mutually exclusive pressures.

Anyway, some facts from Fran:

One of the forms that all journalists sign, to be accredited members of the press on arrival in Israel, is a promise that you will obey the rules of the military censor. In the context of the latest war in South Lebanon, those rules mean - we are not allowed to report any Hezbollah hits on military bases, not allowed to broadcast news of ministerial visits to the frontline until ministers are safely back out of Hezbollah’s range.

It’s that inability to report on hits to military bases which is the issue.

It looks like Hezbollah were primarily using the 9K132 Grad-P variant launcher to fire their rockets. This isn’t a particularly accurate (or powerful) weapon but they can be aimed in a general sense. The Israeli military rationale for the prohibition of live reporting of the location of rocket attacks confirms as much. As Fran reports, “if rockets land whilst we are live on air, we have to be vague as to where they fall (the theory being that Hezbollah may be watching BBC World or equivalent, and using our information to help them calibrate their rockets launchers)”.

So, it appears that the Israeli military accepts that Hezbollah’s rockets are not completely indiscriminate and can be calibrated and aimed at a given area in a viable way.

Fran goes on to say:

In practice, Israel finds these rules very hard to enforce. It is a small, talkative country and the media usually finds out about casualties quickly. The rolling news networks based outside the country are not bound by the censorship rules, so if they find out from other sources they will broadcast.

Hmm.

Here’s another article on the Israeli military censor from AP (thanks to the anonymous commenter who pointed it out in a previous post). It says:

The rules include no real-time reports giving the exact locations of guerrilla missile hits; no reports of missile hits — or misses — on strategic targets…

In practice, it seems to me, the fact that journalists on the ground cannot report on rocket hits or misses on strategic targets is important enough to be worth pointing out. A rocket landing on or perhaps more significantly near a military installation is most often going to be reported simply as a rocket landing in Israel. The military target, if there was one, is unlikely to be publicised. Fran’s article does not really address this.

So, did Hezbollah deliberately try to kill Israeli civilians in large numbers during the conflict as the Israeli government constantly claimed? It is difficult to be sure but there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of evidence to support the claim. It seems more likely that Hezbollah were aiming at Israeli military targets to the best of their limited ability.

Just to restate the obvious, none of this is meant to suggest that I endorse Hezbollah’s actions. I don’t. Although on a vastly different scale, both Hezbollah and the Israeli military displayed a wanton disregard for the lives of civilians.

(Bizzarely, I was interupted while writing this post by the doorbell. It was a nice lady from MORI asking if she could ask a few questions so I said yes. The survey was about media impartiality particularly in relation to the BBC. Absolutely true. The human brain just isn’t wired for that sort of coincidence.)

Tags: News, Politics, Israel, Lebanon, Media, BBC

I’ve got a full inbox but couldn’t help clicking and reading the police statement on the alleged terrorist plot. I’ve so many other thing which need doing but it’s just irresistible.

It was read out by Peter Clarke, the deputy Assistant Commissioner. It begins:

This is the first time we have been able to release information about the progress of the investigation, since the morning of the arrests on 10th August.

Not a good start then. DAC Clarke wants us to believe that all the leaks surrounding the investigation were delivered to the press by the magic leak fairy. Not sure I’m buying that.

Then, would you believe it, he goes on to confirm that the leaks were right on the money. The police now officially say they have found bomb making equipment and martyrdom videos. Lucky guesses perhaps?

Anyway, again, even though the chances of a potential jurist reading this are slim to none, let’s stick to the principles of our society here.

I will say just say one thing in a general sense. I do not deny that there is a very real threat of terrorism in this country. Very few people do. But I also distrust this government intensely and for good reason. Remember that the culture of this government produced this email on the afternoon of September 11th 2001:

It’s now a very good day to get out anything we want to bury. Councillors’ expenses?

These people will use anything and everything for their own political advantage. My distrust of their every word and motive should not be mistaken for an attempt to deny that the threat is real.

Let’s move on:

[T]he investigation is far from complete. The scale is immense. Enquiries will span the globe. The enormity of the alleged plot will be matched only by our determination to follow every lead and line of enquiry.

I shall try to give you an idea of the size and complexity of this investigation.

There have been 69 searches. These have been in houses, flats and business premises, vehicles and open spaces.

As well as the bomb making equipment, we have found more than 400 computers, 200 mobile telephones and 8,000 items of removable storage media such as memory sticks, CDs and DVDs. So far, from the computers alone, we have removed some 6,000 gigabytes of data. The meticulous investigation of all this material will take many months. All the data will be analysed.

There will be thousands of forensic examinations and comparisons. Fingerprints, DNA, electronic data, handwriting comparisons, chemical analysis, and indeed the full range of forensic disciplines will be used.

In other words, 90 DAYS! 90 DAYS! 90 DAYS!

If we just disbanded parliament, the police could take all these decisions for themselves without those interfering politicians getting in the way. It’d be far more efficient.

But wait, what’s this?

I would like to reassure the public that we are doing everything we can to keep you safe, for you to live your lives without being in constant fear.

But, but, but, but that’s remarkably sane and sensible. That’s exactly the sort of thing our coppers should be saying, not all that hysterical stuff about “mass murder on an unimaginable scale”. Much better… oh hang on, he’s not finished:

However, we must be realistic. The threat from terrorism is real, it is here, it is deadly and it is enduring. As we all look for explanations, we cannot afford to be complacent and ignore the reality of what we face.

Normal service has been resumed. Can’t have anyone feeling too secure, now can we?

Tags: News, Politics, Terrorism